Monday, January 23, 2006

Armageddon Calling -- the coming war with Iran, revisited

I've touched on the coming war with Iran in a previous post. Having mulled over the matter, I'm ready to venture forth into this topic again. And I hope you have a strong stomach for what you are about to read, because it's not pretty.

Here's what a superb post over at Winds of Change had to say, in part, about the coming war:

I personally believe that we're very likely to see at least 10 million dead in the Middle East within the next two decades, with an upper limit near 100 million. I do not believe pre-emptive action will be taken against Iran. I do, however, believe the extremist mullahs in Iran mean exactly what they say. They are steeped in an ideology that believes suicide/murder to be the holiest and most moral act possible. They have been diligent in laying strategic plans for an offensive Islamic War against Israel, America and the West. Plans backed by 25 years of action, and stated no less clearly than Mein Kampf. I believe that Ahmedinajad's talk of 12th Imam end-times and halos around his head at the UN aren't the ravings of an isolated nut, simply an unusually public (and unusually noticed) expression of beliefs that are close to mainstream within their ruling class.

War is inevitable at this point, period. That's the simple and terrifying truth. And it could be as bloody as World War Two, which killed around 100 million. I am inclined to agree with the above casualty estimate, which puts the mind numbing number of 100 million dead at its upper limit. Armageddon indeed.

It is merely a question of when, how, and on whose terms the war will commence between Iran, and its stated enemies, namely the US, Israel and the west. Diplomacy is useless, and always was -- all the words and proposals and UN press conferences is going to be nothing but smoke and mirrors. Even sanctions, if it makes it through the UNSC, is going to (at best) only slow down the mullahs in Teheran. Only force will stop the mullahs from getting Allah's bomb.

And, like Winds of Change has said above, I cannot see anyone with both the will and capability to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program. Israel lacks the capability and the US lacks the will. No one has both. There isn't enough time to subvert the unpopular mullahs. Even airstrikes would only slow down the program, not stop it. Invasion is the only remedy that will stop Allah's bomb, and that could only be done by the US, if it fully mobilized and had the political will to do something this audacious. But the US doesn't possess the political will to act, I am becoming increasingly convinced.

So, sometime this year, or next year at the latest, Iran will possess the Bomb. It may even already have it now. What then?

Well, it gets worse.

Once Iran has the Bomb, other less than savory, unstable regimes in the Middle East will want it too. Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt could all quickly find the rationale to have their own nuclear weapons development programs up and run within a year or two after Iran becomes nuclear armed. With a huge spike in WMD proliferation right around the corner, and terrorist supporting states gaining these WMDs, the odds of Islamic terror getting the bomb is going to be around 99% in the short to midterm. No matter what happens to Iran, such technology will be set loose upon the world, especially among its more unstable violent terrorist circles, and the technology cannot be called back. A world with nuclear terrorism is much much closer now that ever before.

And this is all assuming that Iran won't use Allah's bomb to unilaterally launch its long planned war against its hated enemies, the 'Great Satan' (the US) and the 'Little Satan' (Israel). Would Israel launch its own nuclear weapons pre-emptively, or would they not launch until Iran's MIRVs were inbound? If Israel cannot, for whatever reason, pull off a nuclear counterstrike, the US, with its huge nuclear forces with thousands of warheads, certainly would. Longstanding US policy states that a WMD attack on any US ally will be grounds for 'response in kind' upon the aggressor. Iran could wipe out Tel Aviv, or perhaps London or New York with a terrorist-delivered bomb. But tracing back such attacks, to its source of manufacture, is a straightforward forensic procedure, and the finger would quickly point back to Teheran. Any of these horrific scenarios would result in Iran's utter destruction under a deluge of American nuclear missiles -- WMD replied to 'in kind'.

Is Iran's leadership rational? Do they know what is likely to happen if they launch a nuclear war? Do the Iranian people fully comprehend the suicidal Atomic Adventure that their government is now engaged in?

The destruction of one or two nation states in a nuclear exchange is not the only horror in this increasingly unavoidable doomsday scenario. Nuclear armed terrorists, worldwide sustained economic recession, collapse of the hugely expensive Iraq project, permanent new intrusive security measures in every facet of our lives worldwide, anarchy, disease, starvation and nuclear fallout for millions of survivors in the war zones, huge influxes of refugees, and on and on. This is just the tip of the iceberg.

The sword will be drawn, and dark days are ahead. Pray for a miracle.


Anonymous said...

How come mullahs are itching for a war

Jason_Pappas said...

I expect the mullahs will get desperate as they lose domestic support and attempt to unite the country in war. This is typical and not unique to Islam. The Argentine dictatorship tried to unite the country in a war against England (smart?) And, 35 years ago, the Greek dictatorship tried to unite the country in a war against Turkey. Both failed and their regime fell. Saddam tried this in the 80s and again with Kuwait but his failure didn’t lead to a regime change. Nasser tried against Israel. One could go on. At some point the theocracy in Iran will be itching to unite the country by a war.

It most likely would be a nuclear war but it doesn’t have to be. The current fool would probably go that way but he could be replaced by a more conventional fool. Once Iran has the bomb, they could resort to conventional war with an edge. Remember it was the desire to avoid a nuclear confrontation that motivated “limited wars” with Korea and Vietnam. This type of warfare (where we hold back and refuse to cross certain lines) leads to 30,000-60,000 military deaths. At this cost we would surrender Iraq and perhaps Afghanistan to the Iranians. They certainly believe we’d do this because we pulled out of Beirut in the early 1980s and they know that our 5th column would undermine a prolonged war.

At that point Israel may be in trouble or something else may happen. Pakistan, which is closely allied to Saudi Arabia, would provide the Saudis with nukes. We might see a Shiite-Sunni nuclear war. Or the fundamentalist might come to power in Pakistan and we might see a Pakistani-India nuclear war. Or, if we improve nuclear sensing to prevent the smuggling of nukes into our country, the Islamists might pass a nuke to the Chechnyans and we’ll see a Russian-Iranian nuclear war.

The recent threat by Chirac means he believes there is a good possibility and unlike the 5th columnists in our country who think Arabs only hate America and it is all about our foreign policy and “capitalist exploitation,” Chirac knows all too well that France is a target.

What will happen? It’s not clear. If we give Israel the power to take out the current nuclear capacity we’ll have another decade. During that time we have a good chance in educating our fellow world-citizens on the dangers of Islam. If not, these barbarians will bring nuclear war to the world and they will be defeated but the cost will be astronomical.

The Anti-Jihadist said...

Anonymous asks why the Mullahs itch for war...are you implying that the west is to blame for Iran's nuclear brinkmanship?

Iran wants war because Islam and the doctrine Iran embraces explicitly calls for the destruction and conquest of Dar al Har.

This isn't something that can be appeased or negotiated over in good faith. Diplomacy is useless in this sort of situation. Either we will defend ourselves or we will preside over our own destruction. There is no middle ground, and no other choice.

Here's a quote for you from the decision makers in Iran:

"We have a strategy drawn up for the destruction of Anglo-Saxon civilization... we must make use of everything we have at hand to strike at this front by means of our suicide operations or by means of our missiles. There are 29 sensitive sites in the U.S. and in the West. We have already spied on these sites and we know how we are going to attack them."

With enemies like this, war is inevitable.

murtad girl said...

What will happen when millions of innocent people perished because of this stupid action by Iranian (terrorist) Government. War is not suppose to be happen. People will dying and people will suffering. As Malaysian I am encouraging all malaysian get up and stand up for giving rejection to this non-sense Iranian Goverment. Malaysian Government should have said " IRAN GOES TO HELL" ooops,

I am not feel SORRY at all.

Avenging Apostate said...

"How come mullahs are itching for a war"? read the koran u will never ask that question again. As for the war - its bound to happen - moslems dont just want israelis out, they want the whole jewish race exterminated. mohammed hated them - they hate them too. What moslems dont care about is death because they believe they're gonna get 72 virgins and the sad part is - only we know they are wrong, they dont realize that ;).

Will some moslems get smart and will oppose an attack on israel? i highly doubt that, i mean come on - we are talking about moslems who follow the koran to the letter. they wont disobey their blood thirsty allah/mohammed just to give the jews some peace - the jews whom mohammed called PIGS.

Its not us who hate islam - its islam that doesnt wanna see us live. What do we do about it? quite simple - get rid of the bear that goes around killing others even though he hasnt been poked and then we can hope to live in peace and harmony.

hutchrun said...

I see no reason why muslims should not die in their millions as per the teachings of their ideology which have taken the lives of at least 60million Hindus alone.
Hindu Kush is hindu slaughter.
Ah-Mad-in-ijad I support fully primarily in the nuking of Mecca to avenge the `suffering` of the shia at the hands of the sunni for 1300 years.

I`m heartened by this too:
The year she said this great battle would begin was the year 2000. This horrible and bloody battle, that would claim the lives of millions, would be ended by a nuclear attack on present day Iran. She predicted a “bomb of great power would fall on a city in Persia.” In Bernadette’s day, there was no Iran.

This might be the last opportunity to put an end to this evil. And if the liberals/multicultis want to they can go do their bloody `human shield` act and go to the brothel in the sky as well.