Saturday, April 08, 2006

The drumbeats of war growing louder

The war with Iran gets steadily closer. Recent developments include Iran's testing of a Shahab missile specially modified to carry nuclear warheads, as well as Iranian military saber rattling in the form of public 'secret weapon' demonstrations. As expected, UN maneuvering has been useless, with their '30 day ultimatum' providing no specifics about what the UN might do should Iran not comply.

It's increasingly obvious that there are no options short of war to prevent Iran from getting the Bomb:

Retired Air Force Col. Sam Gardiner, an expert in targeting and war games who teaches at the National Defense University, recently gamed an Iran attack and identified 24 potential nuclear-related facilities, some below 50 feet of reinforced concrete and soil.

At a conference in Berlin, Gardiner outlined a five-day operation that would require 400 "aim points," or targets for individual weapons, at nuclear facilities, at least 75 of which would require penetrating weapons. He also presumed the Pentagon would hit two chemical production plants, medium-range ballistic missile launchers and 14 airfields with sheltered aircraft. Special Operations forces would be required, he said.

Gardiner concluded that a military attack would not work, but said he believes the United States seems to be moving inexorably toward it. "The Bush administration is very close to being left with only the military option," he said.

Expect a lot more public naysaying from guys like Gardiner, who would probably advocate more useless diplomatic posturing if he was in charge.


Frap Gurl said...

Seems ineveitable.. but what will be the outcome.. This is something the government needs to think long and hard about.. Scares me frankly...

Always On Watch said...

Today's WaPO headline, front page and above the fold: "U.S. Is Studying Military Strike Options on Iran." I haven't seen front-page on Iran recently.

I'm going to read the article at the WaPo now.

Bushwack said...

Great post. Thanks. Just a few comments. Remember all of the Armagedon talk during the first gulf war, Afghanistan and Iraq the second time. we have learned alot.
Remember this.
The American military is capable of destroying almost any threat to it before it is deployed.
If the US decides to go to war with Iran, The basic military objectives will be achieved within 1 to 2 months of the declaration.
If the lessons of Iraq have been learned, we will not worry about nation building or occupation, just flat out destruction and get out.
One valuable thing has come out of the war in Iraq, that is Experience
No other country in the world has as much knowledge of the new battle field as we do now.

Cubed © said...

Frap gurl,

We know that Iran is going to do something nasty the minute they can; there's no appeasement, no deal, no negotiation, that will dissuade them.

Our best hope to "git'r done" with the least damage to ourselves is to do it before they can actually deploy these things.

My personal favorite pre-emptive action would be to set off some well place EMPs. No electrical circuit in the all of Iran would work; they couldn't turn on a light bulb, much less launch a missile.

My hope is that Our Powers That Be have their beady little eyes on all the Iranian agents and weapons that have been sneaked across our borders already and put in place to be used when the order to attack is sent out.

friendlysaviour said...

high stakes, the dice will go a'rolling.
EMP is a good idea. Shut the country's communications down.
The world will never be the same again though.
It will be double or bust.
Who can figure the side-trips in World economy?
Time to stock up.
It may happen when we least expect,
and unseen. I think the Pentagon has learned the lesson of letting Al-jaz TV run the show.

George Mason said...

That stupid Carter aided and abetted Khomeini. His revolution would have hit the skids in a year, and we could have dumped the thugocracy quickly. BTW, we did the same with Lenin--we made the USSR survive in those days when we could have extinguished it so easily. Every president since Carter, even Ronald Reagan, strengthened, if not actually aided and abetted, Iran. Now, we have a full bore Nazi Germany on our hands, and serious pain and suffering ahead. If we let them alone, they will attempt to nuke us. If we war with them, they will still attempt to nuke us. If we do not war with them, and if we do not cause regime change from within, well, I just can't go there right now...

Harpoon said...

Mark Steyn`s latest `Facing Down Iran`:

The cost of de-nuking Iran will be high now but significantly higher with every year it’s postponed. The lesson of the Danish cartoons is the clearest reminder that what is at stake here is the credibility of our civilization. Whether or not we end the nuclearization of the Islamic Republic will be an act that defines our time.

A quarter-century ago, there was a minor British pop hit called “Ayatollah, Don’t Khomeini Closer.” If you’re a U.S. diplomat or a British novelist, a Croat Christian or an Argentine Jew, he’s already come way too close. How much closer do you want him to get?

friendlysaviour said...

Is there any significance with the different hues of islam regards Saudi and Iran? How do Saudis view Iran nuclear option?